As we enter the last week of this election campaign, the polls are tightening and the predicted results are close. The mainstream media and websites that engage in ‘horserace journalism’ would like us to believe that Mitt has momentum, and that the Gallup pollsters are the only results to consider.
But there are a few analysts who take a more scientific, measured approach. They compile results from all of the polls, national and statewide. They apply bias or weight by comparing results with previous measurements. They use objective evidence in a systematic way.
These sites are FiveThirtyEight (former baseball statistician Nate Silver), Electoral-Vote.com, Votamatic (Emory University political scientist Drew Linzer), HuffPost Pollster, Real Clear Politics, PollTracker, and the Princeton Election Consortium (Princeton neuroscientist Sam Wang).
All of these sites predict that Obama will win the Electoral College and the Presidency – and with a week left in the campaign that prediction is (very) unlikely to change.
If you haven’t already mailed in your ballot, make a plan for Election Day and follow through on that plan. Refer to our Voter Guide for the Club’s Endorsements.