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Do the Math, Obama leads the race as we enter the home stretch


As we enter the last week of this election campaign, the polls are tightening and the predicted results are close. The mainstream media and websites that engage in ‘horserace journalism’ would like us to believe that Mitt has momentum, and that the Gallup pollsters are the only results to consider.

But there are a few analysts who take a more scientific, measured approach. They compile results from all of the polls, national and statewide. They apply bias or weight by comparing results with previous measurements. They use objective evidence in a systematic way.

These sites are FiveThirtyEight (former baseball statistician Nate Silver), Electoral-Vote.comVotamatic (Emory University political scientist Drew Linzer), HuffPost PollsterReal Clear PoliticsPollTracker, and the Princeton Election Consortium (Princeton neuroscientist Sam Wang).

All of these sites predict that Obama will win the Electoral College and the Presidency – and with a week left in the campaign that prediction is (very) unlikely to change.

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2 Comments

  1. Gail Mackler says

    Thanks, John. First thing I do every am is to check Nate Silver’s Five-Thirty-Eight. Do you know how he got those numbers for his blog’s name? G

    Sent from Gail’s iphone

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    • Hi Gail, yes! Nate Silver, Huffpost Pollster, and the others help to keep my blood pressure where it should be. The name of Nate Silver’s blog is from the total number of Electoral College votes – 538. The candidate with 270 or more wins. Today he predict’s Obama at 299, I’ll be happier still when he starts hitting above 300 (Silver was a baseball guy).

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